UNC sociologist Charles Kurzman, author of The Unthinkable Revolution in Iran about the 1978-79 upheaval, says the situation there is reminiscent of what happened30 years ago and, like then, it is too complex to predict what will happen next.
So far, he says, all of the expert analyses are wrong. “They are wrong because the outcome of this week’s events is simply unpredictable. Unpredictable means that no matter how well-informed you may be, it is impossible to know what will happen next. Moments of turmoil make a mockery of accumulated knowledge.”
Read his commentary in Foreign Policy.